Predictions and predictability in the tropics

MIÉRCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2022

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Juliana Dias

NOAA – EUA

Resumen

It is difficult to overstate the importance of weeks 1-4 precipitation predictions in the tropics, yet, prediction skill at lower latitudes tends to lag behind midlatitude skill. While that is partially because of differences in limits of predictability between the two regions, some recent studies have suggested that the tropics are more predictable than has previously been thought.  In this presentation, the current performance of operational numerical weather prediction systems in the tropics will be discussed and contrasted to the midlatitudes. Then the current state of our understanding of tropical sources of subseasonal predictability will be reviewed. The last part of the presentation will be focused on the role of model physics development in advancing tropical precipitation predictions.