Hydrologic prediction applications with the
Traditionally, hydrologic models have been developed for specific prediction applications such as flash floods guidance, water resources management, ecosystem flows, engineering design or inundation modeling. With advances in geospatial and hydro-informatic data infrastructure, high-bandwidth data transfer and high performance computing a new class of integrated hydrologic models are emerging as viable tools for continuous and event-based hydrologic prediction across scales. These models are attempting forward a process-based representation of terrestrial hydrologic systems and, in doing so, provide a spatially and temporally continuous and physically-consistent description of hydrologic states and fluxes. While not immune to classical hydrologic modeling problems such as calibration and equifinality, these new models offer new opportunities for evaluation and constraint through measured assessment of internal hydrologic states and fluxes in addition to just point-based streamflow measurements. The community WRF-Hydro modeling system is one of these new modeling systems that is currently being transitioned from research into operation prediction capabilities in a number of ways. This talk will provide an update on the status of WRF-Hydro model system development and present a small set of recent prediction application examples that range in scale and in hydrometeorological problem type. Specifically, prediction-context applications will be shown which include hurricane landfall in Mexico, seasonal water supply forecasting and ensemble hydrometeorlogical predictions. The talk will conclude with a preview of a U.S. national implementation of WRF-Hydro being developed to provide centralized operational hydrologic analyses and forecasts.