Tropical Cyclone Simulation and Seasonal
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a hazard to life and property and a prominent element of the global climate system, therefore understanding and predicting TC location, intensity and frequency is of both societal and scientific significance. Methodologies exist to predict basin-wide, seasonally-aggregated TC activity months, seasons and even years in advance. We show that a newly developed high-resolution global climate model (FLOR) can produce skillful forecasts of seasonal TC activity on spatial scales finer than basin-wide, from months and seasons in advance of the TC season. The climate model used here is targeted at intraseasonal-to-multiyear prediction of regional climate and the statistics of weather extremes on seasonal to decadal timescales. These results suggest that dynamical forecasts of seasonally-aggregated regional TC activity months in advance are feasible.